Carbon Poker Theory On Why Players Run Good or Run Bad!!!!!!

[cwp394]

Variance is filthy but real

[buonafide]

This is probably much more of a bankroll management issue than a bad beat issue. As noted by other wise players earlier - you are on carbon and most likely playing micro-limits (less than $10 buy-ins). So nobody folds their shit hands. AA and KK are only a favorite to win against ONE random hand, not two or more. So when you raise with AA preflop and get 4 callers there's a good chance your unimproved aces are NOT good. Of course, occasionally you'll flop trips and get tripled up. This means more variance. More variance means you need more bankroll to protect from busting. I would recommend you patiently build your BR through PO freerolls until you have $100 - then start playing microstakes. If you bust, its not the software - its YOU, and you need to adapt your game strategy.

[a9johnson]

Everyones luck is the same. But I know exactly how you feel has been my experience since I started with online poker. Get sukced out on constantly with 80% chance of winning smashed 2 outter getting hit against me. AA KK smashed somehow. but when the situations is reversed I can never suck out anyone if my life depended on it. even in coin flips. but I know what you mean never catch a flush straight or set when you need it. ill hit a set but someone already has a full house or straight or flush. its crazy. for a while years ago I swore of online poker just seemed tooo fishy to me. I mean this stuff happens but not ALL the TIME. in casinos the cards seem to play out fairly for everyone. yea you get sucked out on sometimes but most of the time the best hand holds up. ONline poker is a mystery to me with that stuff.

[PinkishTitan]

Honestly, why don't you post every single "Bad Beat" you see and then post every hand that you think plays out "Standard". While you are at it throw in anything you think seemed interesting at the time. Even if it just involves you raising AA preflop and winning without showdown. Then you can do some true mathematical analysis and see if it is all true. I think you will quickly find out that over the course of 1000's of hands you will see that everything begins to fall in line and is quite normal.

Also, it is really interesting that you only hear these theories when people are losing. Why are people unable to deduce theories of rigged sites when the person is winning? It's a simple bias in the way the mind perceives good vs bad emotions.

Also, the idea that bad beats do not occur as often live is interesting. You would think the deck is randomly shuffled and should spit out an appropriate number of bad beats as is dictated by probability. Again I would strongly argue that if you compared 1000's of live hands vs 1000's of online hands on a 1:1 ratio you would start to see them converge and create similar amounts of "Bad Beats" "Good Runs" "Bad Runs" etc. If for some reason you are truly seeing less bad beats live than the probability would dictate maybe that would mean that live poker is rigged to not deal so many bad beats. You never really know until you collect the data and run the numbers. Personally I have played over 5 Million hands of online poker and can tell you with a a high level of certainty that it is in fact not rigged in any way that I can discern.

[layoh21]

its a bad run bro. Ive been plying online poker for years and the swings have always evened out

[ShipItSA1]

other meanful post good luck with your run good donks

[getmesome2]

I run like oscar pistorious in prison w/o legs

[scott41984]

ok cool thanx for your input , poker bro ... lets get this money

[NeverWinRaces]

After I posted this I cashed in a freeroll for 4 bucks and played a 2.20 and won 13.50, then i played a 5.50 buy in and won 17.50. I then started playing on the .02/.04 slowly building a BR up to about $60. I was playing the same way I've always played just one difference, I was winning more races than usual and not too many bad beats in important spots. I've read everything everyone has said and I appreciate the input. I was venting that night but the main thing I realized is that I can't expect players to be up to par when it is only buy ins less than 5 bucks and the micro limit tables. It just sucks when you are trying to build a BR and have to play in those types of games in order to manage your BR correctly. Since topping out at $60 I've slowly but surely not even cashed in a small buy in tourny, had a winning sit in playing the 2/4 cents tables, or even any of the many freerolls offered on carbon. Im starting to realize it comes down to streaks of good and bad cards, races being won or lost. It is just these streaks seem to last much much longer than you would expect or realize. Once again thanks everyone for your input as it has opened my eyes to your understanding of the software and your theories.

[BuckeyeNation]

On the Micro tables its about luck, it does not matter your hand some folks are not gonna fold at that level and a good pair heads up is great but when 3 or 4 people are still in then not so much.