Carbon Poker Theory On Why Players Run Good or Run Bad!!!!!!

[FrankWhite]

I've been on shitty run as of late. I'ts been unlikely after unlikely and across every site I play. So It's not just carbon. Still, it happens like that sometimes. Just like the roulette wheel can land on red 10 times in a row with slightly less than a 50% chance each time. You can lose ten races in a row. Just because, someone hits their one in four, or seven, or ten, or 20, doesn't change the odds next time. It does even itself out over time. Just because you win a 3 in 4 shot three times in a row, you don't fold it the fourth time. You play it, and you expect to win.

[JohnnyDeepStacks]

That was a good post Nate.

[bilbo63]

Sometimes bad runs can seem worse than they actually are because of what was touched on earlier,namely, donks and people on tilt that will play anything regardless of how many chips you raise. The suck outs in these situations are harder to take since no reasonable person would take some of the risks that some idiots take at the tables (and get away with).
Just keep grinding and wait for the luck to go your way again.

[Tbar9572]

You don't think that over the long run that these 50/50 races even out? When I've played and beat odds heads up a few times in a row I can almost feel a bad beat coming and visa versa.

[Nightfall314]

its called variation

[Nightfall314]

I used to think that too, but you cant blame that site its your game that needs to improve maybe you do not want to hear this. but if you were playing erfect poker ;-You wouldnt be losing

[cwp394]

Variance is filthy but real

[buonafide]

This is probably much more of a bankroll management issue than a bad beat issue. As noted by other wise players earlier - you are on carbon and most likely playing micro-limits (less than $10 buy-ins). So nobody folds their shit hands. AA and KK are only a favorite to win against ONE random hand, not two or more. So when you raise with AA preflop and get 4 callers there's a good chance your unimproved aces are NOT good. Of course, occasionally you'll flop trips and get tripled up. This means more variance. More variance means you need more bankroll to protect from busting. I would recommend you patiently build your BR through PO freerolls until you have $100 - then start playing microstakes. If you bust, its not the software - its YOU, and you need to adapt your game strategy.

[a9johnson]

Everyones luck is the same. But I know exactly how you feel has been my experience since I started with online poker. Get sukced out on constantly with 80% chance of winning smashed 2 outter getting hit against me. AA KK smashed somehow. but when the situations is reversed I can never suck out anyone if my life depended on it. even in coin flips. but I know what you mean never catch a flush straight or set when you need it. ill hit a set but someone already has a full house or straight or flush. its crazy. for a while years ago I swore of online poker just seemed tooo fishy to me. I mean this stuff happens but not ALL the TIME. in casinos the cards seem to play out fairly for everyone. yea you get sucked out on sometimes but most of the time the best hand holds up. ONline poker is a mystery to me with that stuff.

[PinkishTitan]

Honestly, why don't you post every single "Bad Beat" you see and then post every hand that you think plays out "Standard". While you are at it throw in anything you think seemed interesting at the time. Even if it just involves you raising AA preflop and winning without showdown. Then you can do some true mathematical analysis and see if it is all true. I think you will quickly find out that over the course of 1000's of hands you will see that everything begins to fall in line and is quite normal.

Also, it is really interesting that you only hear these theories when people are losing. Why are people unable to deduce theories of rigged sites when the person is winning? It's a simple bias in the way the mind perceives good vs bad emotions.

Also, the idea that bad beats do not occur as often live is interesting. You would think the deck is randomly shuffled and should spit out an appropriate number of bad beats as is dictated by probability. Again I would strongly argue that if you compared 1000's of live hands vs 1000's of online hands on a 1:1 ratio you would start to see them converge and create similar amounts of "Bad Beats" "Good Runs" "Bad Runs" etc. If for some reason you are truly seeing less bad beats live than the probability would dictate maybe that would mean that live poker is rigged to not deal so many bad beats. You never really know until you collect the data and run the numbers. Personally I have played over 5 Million hands of online poker and can tell you with a a high level of certainty that it is in fact not rigged in any way that I can discern.