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I prefer to chip up on the bubble. I prefer to go for a win as opposed to merely making the bubble. Losing chips while waiting for bubble to pop can hinder your ability to get up there. I never play JUST to cash, I always play to win.
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I hate this strategy. It guarantees you (AT BEST) the min cash and may end up still bubbling if other tables are doing this too. The negative side of this is you are limiting the number of hands you will see to get a double up. Instead of having 8bb and 10 hands to get a double up, you will end up having 4bbs and 5 hands to get a double up. The longer the bubble last the more negative the results are.
Lets say you effectively make the bubble 80% of the time with 2bbs and then min cash for a 25% profit on the buyin and the other 20% you bust out because other tables are doing same thing and you end up one spot short. We will use a $2.20 buy in to figure out the EV. 10 tournaments you get in this spot and you cash for $2.75 8 times and cash for $0.00 2 times for a total of $22.00 from $22.00 buyins for an Estimated value of $0.00.
2 times @ $0.00 = $ 0.00
8 times @ $2.75 = $22.00
less buyins =-$22.00
EV of $0.00 and $0.00 profit each time you use this strategy
Compare this to getting a double up 60% of the time and moving up a little from a min cash, and possibly running it up 20% of the time to a real stack and having a shot at the bigger prizes for the top spots. We will use a conservative estimate of $7.50 for that 20 percent assuming first place of a $2.20 tournament is $50 - $60 we will assuming when we do run it up we end up getting combination of finishes between 18th and 1st. I want to make this number small to show you don't have to get first or even 5th place once to make this profitable. If you end up getting in final 18th once this is a much more profitable play.
4 times @ $0.00 = $ 0.00
4 times @ $3.25 = $13.00
2 times @ $7.50 = $15.00
less buyins =-$22.00
Total EV would be $ 6.00 or .60 profit each tournament
So while you will cash more often by time banking you will show less profit (assuming you have a good push fold game).
While I won't yell at people for doing this (they bought in just like me and can play their tournament how they like), It does hurt everyone at the table by not allowing them to see more hands to get their money in good and try for a double up.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
bartonjoel
good point a..b..etc
read the post, read it again, and anytime you think about stalling to make itm for min cash, read it again. There's only TWO game types where this MIGHT be +ev, rebuy/addons where you only buy in once and don't do addon, and games with HUGE overlay
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Well I just did that squatting technique last night in the BCP freeroll and it actually worked,,,,LOL...It felt dirty as hell but it worked! I don't know that I could do that always.
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I slow it way down when I get into the ten big blind range and the antes are in effect or affect(I like to slow it down in this situation because you play less hands so you pay out less in antes and the small stacks on the other tables are likely to bust out of the tournament so give more time to do so.)
If there's no antes and I'm in the ten big blind range then I want to play as fast as possible so that I can see a bunch hands to get a really good hand/position to shove all in with.
If I have a decent size stack then I usually try to steal blinds by playing a little more aggressively.
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I used to go for ITM,now unless I'm in a sattelite I go for the win .Look at the prize structure the next time your in a tourney ,you aim for the top because that's were the money is,and if people are freezing at the bubble that's when you go aggressive and get the edge.
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i use that alot of the time some get pissed at me for doin it but hey its part of winning anyway you can thats what i say anyway.keep up the good work i know i am.
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depends on the prize structure, but i would say that the bubble is a good time to steal a few blinds if theres an opportunity since most people will be playing very tight.
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i like doing it but afraid ill get beat
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Fold to the Gold! I sometimes go as far as using up the extra time just to get in the money. Especially if I'm low on chips. I just watch the other table to pass the time, hoping someone calls an all-in and gets knocked out.
