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To me this article helps a little but not much when ur on the downside on luck. Good read and no where does it ever say anything rigged but is just about the "luck" factor.
The Mathematical Truth About Poker: Some Do Run Worse - Poker Psychology and Strategy
Thanks for the post man. I'm sorry to hear that you feel like you run worse than others. I can relate. I feel like I have been in a consistent downswing for a few weeks now. It is mentally exhausting...
Funny how none of the smart asses who always jump on me when im venting have nothing to say about this post LMFAO. yes tturne01 i seem to fall way below on the luck factor. My pairs never hold but when against a pair they always hold lol At least with that article i know im not crazy lol
interesting article, really nice thread.
Yes it was a interesting article. I just found out i get points for this. lol
its a very interesting article, i wonder how much the luck factor plays into it
Good article. Might keep me from bashing my head into the wall for a few days. LOL!
good info im surewe all get mad sometimes
I feel the deck is always stacked against me. HEHE
hallucinations
If you would rather make excuses than work on your game, this is the perfect article for you.
It would be more beneficial to study and try to fix your leaks than focus on why you don't win.
Didn't need anything to me that I'm one....but thanks anyway
That was a pretty good article.I wish i was more inclined to learn the math to make me a better player.Of course luck is involved.......
That's not the point of the article. It is impossible to mathematically calculate for player skill, thus it must be assumed that skill (and all other factors except the cards) are held constant. Under this assumption, he sets up a "luck" distribution, which, given the insane number of possibilities, will approximate a normal curve (due to the central limit theorem). This means that 68% of players will fall between the mean and plus/minus 1 standard of deviation, 95% within 2 SDs, and 99.7% within 3 SDs. It is inevitable that some players will land far below or far above the mean.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssuglia
However, I do agree with you, not everyone is the same skill level, you can avoid -EV spots by simply folding pre-flop, thus this article is nothing more than useless theory. I'm sure plenty of people will read it and then just attribute their previous losses to them getting the short end of the luck distribution (also not the point of the article) and use it as a shoulder to cry on.
Luck is a huge part of poker, to be a professional poker player you have to have the luck factor swing your way more times than not.
I think your missing the whole point of the article but then again it doesnt surprise me at all.. What kinda leak can you fix if your big hands are losing to trash that you tried to keep em out of the pot with decent betting that normal players or decent ones wouldnt call no matter what. The problem isnt folding preflop as i can do that with ease. If i even remotely think im beat its a easy fold.. but yet again some think the cards will even out for everyone and as i suspected this just isnt the case. Some people are just luckier then others and at some sites you can be luckier then other sites as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssuglia
Plus with online the luck factor plays much more of a roll then live. Since you cant get the reads online that you can get live. Not saying there arent any reads online but they are very limited to bet sizes and such. Where as live you body can and will betray you at times whether you know your giving them out or not.
Im all for improving my game but at what cost? You can get into some very bad habits online that you may start trying live that just wont work like it does online. I have looked over some stats from online pros and live pros and if you really take the time to look into it you will see that "most" live pros dont fair well online and online pros dont fair to well live. It's cause the game is just a different beast between the two. You just cant improve your game when suckouts happen. what can you learn from your AA or KK losing to 3 5 or any trash hand? I can and want to learn from mistakes and do at times go thru HH to see where leaks may be coming from or what im doing to cause them.. I know im not too solid at online cause i play like im playing live and it just doesnt work anymore for me. My live game im sure i have leaks but i fair ALOT better and have won quite a few games for good money and cash quite often.
I also think ive been taking the game way too seriously online and think people should value there money like me which doesnt happen at micros, no matter what you value others dont.. a $1 game doesnt have the skills that a 100 buyin does. Yes there are rich donks who dont value there money either but there are alot less of them.. At the lower stakes odds seem much different but its mainly cause people will play anything at lower levels where as the higher buyins people will fold them marginal hands more often then the lowers.
With all that said tho, you are going to have some unluckier then others. In order to have an average there has to be some on the high end and some on the low end and regardless of which side your on you still have to work on your game. Poker is a game to where no one has it mastered and never will.
yes i think luck plays a big part of it thanks for the post interesting read
man i lost with ak to inferior hands 4 times last night. live cash game. AH
Yeah I probably should have been a bit more clearer about that. My point was that people could use this article as a crutch, or a shoulder to cry on, as you put it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tta91690
very nice article. ive read ones with this same subject before too.IS TRUE, the cards have no memory too. BUt sometimes, when u are running bad for weeks, i ts hard to keep that in mind too. eventuually, u WILL start to run better tho, it always turns around. UNLESS u are truly very .unlucky. lol. well GL in ur games
This part of the article i found interesting
"Most players complain endlessly about their bad luck, cry about their rotten cards, agonize over the endless hours missing countless flops and getting sucked out on by bozos calling on a wing and a prayer.
You have to get over this if you have any hope of becoming a legit, long-term winner in this game."
Seriously though the article is a load of smoke and mirrors. Spends alot of time basically explaining that for someone to run good there has to be someone who runs bad. In essence what he is saying is that for someone to win another must lose, which isnt some ground breaking theory. Obviously you can replace win/lose with run good/run bad or be lucky/be unlucky and you have what his whole article is about.
To finish he correctly states that luck or running bad isnt a constant and can change from hand to hand or session to session. That makes the whole "some players really run worse than other" redundant. Obviously the guy who loses a hand runs worse in that hand than the guy who won the hand. Not once does he say that those who run worse are destined to run worse for eternity, infact he states the opposite saying it "has no memory" so can basically change at will.
Thank you for posting the article. I found it an interesting read and am glad you have shared it with your fellow poker players