Quote Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
So you raise the river and what hands you beat are gonna call you? AJ maybe. All weaker hands will likely fold. All better hands call. You talk about playing optimally. Checking behind is the Optimum play.

Betting the river is just pointless. Your max value arguement has no ground because your not getting value from a bet because weaker hands arent calling. Lets say you put 4K into the pot and hes put 4K into the pot. Your hand has showdown value so you check behind. If you have a better hand you win 4K, If he has the better hand you lose 4K. Lets say this time you bet 2K on the river to put him all in. He folds his weaker hands so your 2K is returned and you win 4K . If he has a better hand he calls and you lose 6K. By your own admission there is like 1 hand possibly 2 in which he calls with a weaker hand and you win 6K.

So he has 1 possible hand that makes a river bet profitable. Thats assuming hes even calling with AJ.
Yeah I am warming 2 your analysis. Just difficult 2 believe he has a hand that beats me given that he checked. It's just difficult 2 try 2 understand some of these players. I mean if he is a good thinking player he has 2 know that I have a real hand.... or why would I bet the turn 2 set up a river shove. So assuming he is a good player i would reason he would not have A10 in that spot given the fact that a good player is not likely 2 play a hand like A10 in that spot becuase it is so easily dominated. Now on the flip side.... if I think he is a bad player..... which fwiw I did..... then I can imagine that he would call with weak Aces.... and I would also conclude that he would bet 2 pair on the river. I mean I really thought he was bad..... and he was..... and I also really thought that a 10 was definately in his kicker wheelhouse. But given the fact that he checked and I thought he was bad I bet. I think you would be surprised how many top regs on merge would bet there 2. In reality.... I think its semantics....... not really imo anything overtly right or wrong with checking/betting river. One of those rare spots where both options imo are about break even. Good analysis though Prawney.... I think you definitely turned a definite bet in my mind.... into prolly a check given the fact that if it is nearly break even... then i would have been in a lot better spot 2 have checked and kept my stack in a great spot. I took the higher variance line.... and as I continue 2 type I think I really do like a c/back on the river. HUH.