Well, maybe your so far into the math your forgetting an important part....reads? I know it sounds silly, but every time I get too deep in whats "mathematically" correct, my play suffers horribly. Sure, maybe it's math correct to do something, but whats the opposition like? Have they got a read on you maybe? Have you become predictable? God knows, with all the tracking software out there, enough hands with someone can give your competition a dose of what you are doing, when and why.