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  1. #1
    PokerOwned God jasonv12's Avatar
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    Try thinking about things differently.

    I get dealt 8s8h deep stacked from early position and raised and I get 3 callers all with position on me.

    The board comes AK6 with two spades. Do I cbet here? If I check will I get blown off from spades or a non-hand? Will I give hands like QJ too easy of a ride? Can I get a single ace or king to fold? I'm thinking about these things and weighing what to do (which is pretty obvious actually in hindsight) and I realize something interesting:

    What are the chances someone does have an ace or a king? We can assume the hands they are calling with are weighted towards these cards. What else do we know?

    Between the flop and my 2 cards there are 47 cards left in the deck. 6 of them are the other aces and kings. My 3 opponents are holding 6 cards. This means that for "card #1" there is a 6/47 chance of them holding an ace or king, for "card number 2" a 6/46 chance, 6/45, 6/44, etc. until one is accounted for. If we add these results for 6 cards, we get the chance of an ace or king being out. To make the math simple, say the 47 is a constant, that would say there is a 36/47 chance that an ace or king is out, not even including the dead cards before it and not factoring in the fact their ranges are weighted towards aces and kings.

    Put this together with equity from spades and and random other draws, and we're in horrible shape with little room to improve, but the question is: is a cbet worth it. If we assume they will call with an ace or king at least once, not factoring in flushes, future equity, or chances to get them to fold with more barrels, we have less that 11/47 (and honestly less than 10% with everything factored in) to win the pot right there. So unless we think we can bet like a fraction of a bb AND get away with it, check fold works!

    I knew the odds were stacked against me, but until I took the time to slow down and really think about it, I was no where near able to realize how bad a cbet truly would be there. I'm sure you can get there with conventional rules, but this deep understanding really allows for you to open your mind to all the possibilities and think about things with more exactness. Sorry Barry Greenstein.
    Last edited by jasonv12; 03-14-2014 at 07:30 PM.

  2. #2
    PokerOwned Master buonafide's Avatar
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    The second the THIRD caller called preflop was when your hand became a drawing hand. a board of 237 may have been a place for a cb but with that many callers all with position a cb would have been a donation

  3. #3
    PokerOwned God jasonv12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by buonafide View Post
    The second the THIRD caller called preflop was when your hand became a drawing hand. a board of 237 may have been a place for a cb but with that many callers all with position a cb would have been a donation
    My point is that there are always more ways to think about something. And thinking about it differently can lead to better understanding of the game as a whole. I'm not saying it was or wasn't obvious.

  4. #4
    PokerOwned Demi-God
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    yea there are always different ways to play this crazy game!

  5. #5
    PokerOwned Pro
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    small and mid pairs are always riskythe say call with them dump them if flop is bad but how really knows lol

  6. #6
    PokerOwned Demi-God s810car's Avatar
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    This is why pp 8 and lower shouldn't be played from utg or 2nd utg, unless your table is tight enough a raise will take down most of the field, or you can limp in and only call a small raise oop if it puts you HU at flop. With multiple callers like this unless you got a board giving you a gutshot or open ender (i even disagree with 237, 3 callers puts A4 and A5 in hand ranges), this is def a check fold situation. Better to not play low pp from early pos unless <15 bb or you can see the flop on 1-2bb
    Always Remember Your Roots



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  7. #7
    PokerOwned Demi-God s810car's Avatar
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    Almost forgot, the 47 IS a constant, people can have pp as well, and just because one card is hit doesn't change the odds for the other cards. Calling that out because that's a common mistake people make that can hurt your game
    Always Remember Your Roots



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  8. #8
    PokerOwned God abwil2's Avatar
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    OOP betting takes alot stronger hand then 88, thats a set mining hand not a raising hand cause unless you hit your beat. You aint going to make donks fold EVER!!
    Failing to Prepare is Preparing to fail : John Wooden

  9. #9
    PokerOwned Demi-God
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    you can play in many ways depends off oponet

  10. #10
    PokerOwned Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by abwil2 View Post
    OOP betting takes alot stronger hand then 88, thats a set mining hand not a raising hand cause unless you hit your beat. You aint going to make donks fold EVER!!
    ever??

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