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  1. #1
    PokerOwned Veteran
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
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    127

    Want to know whether "donkey bets" are profitable for you?

    After a little study and math, I've come to find that many of us could make a profit long term just from betting 250 points on donkey bets for every Carbon FR. Now, first word of recommendation, betting ITM and Donkey Down are losing bets long term no matter what (Unless you are ITM over 40% of the time long term *which is pretty much impossible due to variance,* in which case ITM bets would be break even. Also, Donkey Down bets would only be profitable if you aren't ITM over 95% of the tourneys you play, in which case you should probably read a poker strategy book. lol). The only long term profit can be maintained by Win, Place, and Show bets. I have devised a formula that runs every possible betting strategy using these three bets and can tell you which betting strategy is most profitable for you based on your long term win percentages (top 3 placings). For example, here is my outcome (and this is based on the average number of players *60 per tourney. If the # of players is lower than 60 in a given tourney than your profit decreases and if the number of players per tourney is greater than 60 in a given tourney than your profit increases):

    1st place % -5.35%
    2nd place % - 2.06%
    3rd place % - 2.47%

    5x win (1st only) 146.435
    5x place (1st or 2nd) 145.694
    5x show (1st - 3rd) 73.57
    4x win, 1x place 146.2868
    4x win, 1x show 131.862
    3x win, 2x place 146.1386
    3x win, 2x show 117.289
    2x win, 3x place 145.9904
    2x win, 3x show 102.716
    1x win, 4x place 145.8422
    1x win, 4x show 88.143
    1x place, 4x show 87.9948
    2x place, 3x show 102.4196
    3x place, 2x show 116.8444
    4x place, 1x show 131.2692
    1x win, 1x place, 3x show 102.5678
    1x win, 2x place, 2x show 116.9926
    1x win, 3x place, 1x show 131.4174
    2x win, 1x place, 2x show 117.1408
    2x win, 2x place, 1x show 131.5656
    3x win, 1x place, 1x show 131.7138

    This is the amount of point profit I would gain long term with my win percentages betting 50pts per bet, 5 bets.

    If you are interested in learning your own profitability ratios to find out whether or not you should start making donkey bets, PM me and I'll run one for you (for a fee of course. I think 150 pts is reasonable, and we can do it via marketplace).

  2. #2
    Elite PokerOwned Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
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    462
    Good math. I'll offer some advice real quick too. Make a donkey bet, big or small. If you win...Profit, you lose...non profit. No need to thank me.

  3. #3
    PokerOwned Pro
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
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    227
    Don't they say keep the bad customers in because they are the ATM ...

  4. #4
    PokerOwned Demi-God HopsBar28's Avatar
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    May 2013
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    1,032
    Dude... you've got WAY too much time on your hands
    I'm not slurring my words. I'm talking in cursive. I believe the ladies find it to be quite elegant.

  5. #5
    PokerOwned Veteran
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    Oct 2013
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    127
    Yeah, but the bad customers are the ones who really don't care about profitibility ratios in the first place. So they'll still be here. Not to mention, they're also the ones with the negative numbers after an evaluation, so it's not really "profitable" anyway. And CK, hence the reason I used the phrase "long term" captain intelligent.

  6. #6
    Elite PokerOwned Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
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    462
    Quote Originally Posted by chadherczeg View Post
    Yeah, but the bad customers are the ones who really don't care about profitibility ratios in the first place. So they'll still be here. Not to mention, they're also the ones with the negative numbers after an evaluation, so it's not really "profitable" anyway. And CK, hence the reason I used the phrase "long term" captain intelligent.
    Lol Don't you have a fake business to run Captain Crybaby....

  7. #7
    PokerOwned Veteran
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    Oct 2013
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    Probably true I do have too much time on my hands, but I like doing math. So it's entertaining to do stuff like this when I'm not working. It's better than sitting and watching some dumb television show.

  8. #8
    PokerOwned Veteran
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
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    127
    Quote Originally Posted by CKC1UNV View Post
    Lol Don't you have a fake business to run Captain Crybaby....
    here's the link to my fake website Home I'd tell you to click it, but it's fake, just like my business. HAHAHA. Haters like you are going to hate, and I accept you for your haterism. The more haters there are, the more proof of my success. So thank you CK.

  9. #9
    Elite PokerOwned Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
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    462
    Man...your pretend girlfriend must really dislike you.

  10. #10
    PokerOwned Veteran
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by CKC1UNV View Post
    Man...your pretend girlfriend must really dislike you.
    No, she doesn't. She's pretend, duh. In my pretend life, my pretend fiance loves me and loves spending my pretend money even more.

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