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  1. #1
    PokerOwned Master buonafide's Avatar
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    fold AA preflop?

    There's some debate about this. I have done it before - incredibly rare of course. I had a deep stack late in a tourney before the bubble and was at a table with a few other deep stacks. I picked up AA in big blind, and after a small stack went all-in, both deep stacks (both had me covered) went all in on top. I know that AA does not do good in multi-all ins and wanted to ensure that not only I made the money, but still had a chance to win the tourney. So I folded and watched the cards make a monster for one of the big stacks and felt great about my play. I went on to the final table wondering if I stumbled upon a secret - or maybe it was just luck that I wasn't going to triple up that hand.

    Anyone else try this - or maybe you think its crazy?

  2. #2
    BlaisOne BlaisOne's Avatar
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    Thats poker… Any two cards are live until the end. I just went out near the bubble with AA… Lesson learned is don't go all in pre flop near the bubble!

  3. #3
    PokerOwned Pro
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    there are actually several valid reasons to fold aa preflop - and that is one of them. though in your situation you were trying to cash and play it safe - which is what i like to do as well - as long as you get to the final table you can always win it. - but some subscribe that winning is everything and then the right move is to call and pray for the best = if you win you got a great chance to win it all- the only close call is that there were only 3 others in the hand - if it was 4 others and you then a fold is a greater play

  4. #4
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    It definitely depends on how many people are in the hand. I would probably call depending on the stakes in the tournament and how close it was to the final table. Then again, I'm a pretty bad poker player

  5. #5
    Experienced Member
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    No, no , no and no. I understand the situation you were in (near the bubble and covered in chips) but, the short stack was short stacked and could have just trying to steal the blinds with ANY TWO cards. The first deep stacked guy probably read this as well and was expected to be light (Axs, 22-99, SCs,). The second guy however, could have identified what the first guy was doing, thus getting it in with a range that he considered was crushing the first guy due to that situation. So we can put the second guy who went all in with a range like this: KQs, AQo, AQs, AKo, AKs, TT-KK.

    Ok, so putting all this info into an odds calculator we get something like this: first guy we gave 60% of hands, Second guy we gave 15% of hands, and third guy we gave 5% of hands. And of course we give you Pocket Rockets to close the action.

    Against 3 players all in pre-flop you have 61% equity. They all have around 13% equity against YOUR actual hand. This is a dream spot to Triple up in a situation where everyone will be pushing super light due to the bubble mechanics and ICM pressure. To win in the FT, the more chips you have the better the chances for you to win it. Had you tripled up in that spot, your chances of winning would've been greater than the value of any min cash.

    In conclusion, this was a terrible mistake given that circumstances. Remember, the fact that you would've lost for whatever reason doesn't justify a bad play. Don't be results oriented, always look for the best spots to maximize value and improve your chances of winning.

    Cheers,
    TheRomeo2K

  6. #6
    EddieTorr
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    I'm with TheRomeo. That's too conservative, even if it means you miss the money that time.

  7. #7
    PokerOwned Demi-God
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    I folded KK on the bubble short stacked a while back. My thinking was, even if i quadruple up the odds of me even making the first pay bump were still not good, so i mucked it and ended up making the min cash. I took a TON of shit from people here about it. I didn't care because I truly thought I made the right decision. I think that a lot of the time, in tournament poker survival is more important than equity. So in your case it really all comes down to this, are you willing to sacrifice equity in order to guarantee your survival? Obviously you are.

    Against 3 hands like this the absolute best case you are 71% to win, so you will still lose(or tie) 29% of the time, so more than 1 out of 5 times you will bust. Worst case scenario you are about 51% so you will lose (or tie) %49 of the time, so basically 1 out of 2 times you will bust. So you have to decide if you are willing to risk your tournament life on a hand where u will lose 29-48% of the time. While I disagree with your decision as it is one I wouldn't make myself, I will not call it a mistake on the button of a tournament, i would just call it a judgement call. Ultimately anytime you call an all in preflop you are gambling and I would never call choosing not to gamble(especially with your whole stack) a mistake.
    Last edited by nab76; 02-08-2014 at 06:26 PM.

  8. #8
    PokerOwned Pro
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    never bone it but wish i did a few times

  9. #9
    Seasoned Veteran
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    I never fold them pf. I can't win mtt's very often so i wanna get first to make up for the losses. if i bust i lose 1 buy in but if i trip or quadruple up i can win many more times the buy in. even if your still short stack still you have a much better chance of getting to the good money. I guess it has alot to do with the payout structure as well.

  10. #10
    PokerOwned Master buonafide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theromeo2k View Post
    No, no , no and no. I understand the situation you were in (near the bubble and covered in chips) but, the short stack was short stacked and could have just trying to steal the blinds with ANY TWO cards. The first deep stacked guy probably read this as well and was expected to be light (Axs, 22-99, SCs,). The second guy however, could have identified what the first guy was doing, thus getting it in with a range that he considered was crushing the first guy due to that situation. So we can put the second guy who went all in with a range like this: KQs, AQo, AQs, AKo, AKs, TT-KK.

    Ok, so putting all this info into an odds calculator we get something like this: first guy we gave 60% of hands, Second guy we gave 15% of hands, and third guy we gave 5% of hands. And of course we give you Pocket Rockets to close the action.

    Against 3 players all in pre-flop you have 61% equity. They all have around 13% equity against YOUR actual hand. This is a dream spot to Triple up in a situation where everyone will be pushing super light due to the bubble mechanics and ICM pressure. To win in the FT, the more chips you have the better the chances for you to win it. Had you tripled up in that spot, your chances of winning would've been greater than the value of any min cash.

    In conclusion, this was a terrible mistake given that circumstances. Remember, the fact that you would've lost for whatever reason doesn't justify a bad play. Don't be results oriented, always look for the best spots to maximize value and improve your chances of winning.

    Cheers,
    TheRomeo2K
    Those approximate stats were going through my head during the decision. In the end, I thought that I could afford to wait for a better opportunity to risk my monster stack.

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