When to go deep in a PO like (THNL )tourney.
You can try to make final tables and wait tight till you get aa kk and blind out into 10th place or 9th place in most cases BUT when you get a chance at going real deep and there are 5 people piled up around the bubble with the same semi-big stack, playing tight... GO for the big money with a 50% plus shot at doubling up. Yeah you'll lose a few cashes but win first many many more times in the long run.
Heres the criteria for when to take your 50 /50 shot at 4th place from 15th place. In most PO tourneys you can play tight and around the bubble and play your premiums with folds all around to make it from 15th to 7th fairly easy. BUT if your at $6k in chips and everyone else in the last 6 or 7 people have similar stacks - and their playing tight....>>> Take your AK and shove the crap out of it into a 3BB raiser - Normally I might take a look at the flop with my "A Rag" - but heres the catch - most cases they fold and if they don't they typically have some lesser pocket pair - or if your lucky they have AQ or even AK and you split the antes and blinds. Yes - sometimes AA min raises and catches you but that's rare.
Last tourney I played I found myself in this situation. Dude turned over 99 - I catch Ace on flop = 87%. He catches 9 on turn and I lose. Personally I think he should have folded because 90% off the time I do that move - I have AA, KK etc.
Now sure I'm mad I lost but the fact is I was close to 50% pre flop and If I win I go from 15th place to 4th with $16k in chips and I almost assuredly knock him out. Now, If I was at $10k or $12k maybe I let him have his raise and the antes and blinds or I call and he hits his 999 any way and I'm definitely critically wounded.
Last Time I checked - no one had a 50% final table percentage. That hand gave me a very high final table percentage and a chance to go DEEPPPP. IT was a gamble but considering the bubble was gonna be a 40 minutes dog fight with me limping into 9th place with a $2k stack - why not gamble. Top 3 spots pay way more then bottom 3 and I had a 49% or so being in position.
Now if I had $1k left and there was one left to go for the bubble and they had to go through blinds - maybe I take my $1 and go home shoving my last $500 after he busts out.
So the factors for the gamble here are:
Lots of similar stacks with you at the bottom and like 17 left.
Lots of tight strong players.
A double up that puts you in top 5 or assures you at final table with a chance to go deep.
A read (i.e. don't call a tight players all in with
Ace rag) that insures you have above 45% (and hopefully 80%+) chance at a dbl up (45% is a gd final table percentage).
This works best if you are a solid player - donks beware you will get calls from half the table.
