hit n run strategy applied to long term?

SO...been kind bored...so heres a long post...lol.

I've been thinking. Everyone says the hit n run strategy is bad because you miss out on opportunities when your opponents are better than you. If you are truly better than the players at the table, conventional wisdom says to sit there and grind it out. This is basically what the majority of profitable poker players seem to do. It is also the best way to gain experience and apply your knowledge.

However...I've been wondering if a hit n run approach can be applied long term. There is variance in poker and I think if you are atleast an average player, you will near always find yourself up atleast 50% of your buy in or more. This will happen more times than not.

So, what if you just bought out each time this happened? Idk about you guys, but I can't really remember the last time I went from my 1 BI to 0 BI, without being up some fraction of a BI.

Couldn't some person follow this strategy and successfully and consistently grow their BR? It goes against the fundamentals, but I think mathematically, it is a winning proposition.

On average your opponents will stay at the table longer than you, so you have ample chance to earn your losses back and get up to the 1.5 BI mark a significant percentage of the time. On the times you blow your BI, you only have to sucessfully pull off a hit n run twice to break even.

If you use 1.5BI as the threshold to run, then if you would need to pull a sucessful hnr greater than 67% of the time to profit. I think this seems doable?

For reference these would be break even percentages needed to make up for a lost BI: (hope my math is right).

Threshold (BI): Successful % hnr needed to break even for each lost BI:
1.1 90%
1.2 83.3%
1.3 77.8%
1.4 71.4%
1.5 66.7%
1.6 62.7%
1.7 ~60% I estimated it a little high. This is if you are making .05 BI. Should be lower.
1.8 56%
1.9 52.2%
2 50%
... ...
3 33.3%
4 25%
5 20%

Given this, I could see why a successful/skilled poker player would want to play longer. If they are better than their opponents, they only need to tripling their buy in a third of the time or getting 5x 20% of the time. Good grinders prolly are pulling this off much easier over thousands of hands then the breakeven percentages.

hmmm...I had a nicely spaced table...lol and it squished it all together. At least its still coherent.

Ppl stay and lose with game hands vs. game hands.

Ur not going to get ppl to play with your image if u just hit n' run, hence "variance" will DEFINETLY apply. I don't agree with your logic.

I understand what you are saying. Booking a win is a philosophy I try to follow. I hate playing a cash session, being up half a buyin or more, then leaving a loser. That is why I put strict rules on myself for cash games on when to leave. It helps me build my roll and avoid losing sessions that should be wins.

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Originally Posted by eqgh5uea

Ppl stay and lose with game hands vs. game hands.

Ur not going to get ppl to play with your image if u just hit n' run, hence "variance" will DEFINETLY apply. I don't agree with your logic.

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I agree here - and it's not just your own image. For making a profit at a cash game, a big part of it is learning how your opponents play and using that against them. With a hit-n-run strategy, you will never have a chance to develop that information about them

I think people will figure you out & start putting you all in when your out of position.Or when they think you have a weak hand.

I think it depends on the type of tournament and how many players. I don't like the Hit and Run theory but it some cases it might work out for you.

As far as strategy goes i thik its best to not do hit and runs except for certain occasions.

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Originally Posted by AZPLAYS11

I think it depends on the type of tournament and how many players. I don't like the Hit and Run theory but it some cases it might work out for you.

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The hit in run will never work for tournaments considering you can't run

hit and run can work on bovada, don't see names there, and I hate that btw

hmm...I see. I don't think its an optimal strategy, but just curious if it could work. Obviously if I was a consistent winner, then staying at the table would be more favorable, but at this point that is not the case, lol.

i agree it could only be applied to cash games, and prolly best at bovada.

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Originally Posted by plutogon

hmm...I see. I don't think its an optimal strategy, but just curious if it could work. Obviously if I was a consistent winner, then staying at the table would be more favorable, but at this point that is not the case, lol.

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You might be hitting an AA combo when a plr with a consistent advent of playing rags will definetly hit u hsrd.

You'll have to develop a non-adherence to using pocket aces.

Good luck!

yea the hit and run isn't the worst idea if u do it on Bovada!

Well if you double up and leave. You essentially have given yourself two buy-ins. If you can do that 51% of the time, you'd be profitable.

It will work, I think you should go for it !!!

If your looking for a strategy that relies on luck , well your already off to a bad start.

Hit n runs are best when you have the bankroll for a tournament that your planing on buying into. Your roll is good and it covers the tournament that your going to buy in to. So shortly before tournament hour or less. You sit at cash table and attempt to win your buyin quickly. Over time though your going to be relying on lots of luck if you continue and will most likely not have the roll for the high variance your going to run into playing that fast and aggressive and trying to make something happen. The variance swings will be huge and people don't do it cause its not that profitable, you would be extremely good AND LUCKY to break even over time and thats if your roll was large enough to handle swings that its going to take on.

LOVE the Hellmuth wigging...lol

I cant think of why wont it work in the long run.. it has too..
Not that you should do it, mind. :D

good points JohnnyDeepStacks. And hellmuth wigging out is freaking awesome, lol.

hit and run can work on bovada, don't see names there, and I hate that btw

yes... grinding over long periods pays off... you have to pay attention and focus... hit n run is luck based gambling

yea the hit n ru theory will not work long term!!

Not to mention its boring. I like to sit and play poker.

EV loss from hit and run comes from:
1. Not taking advantage of opponents mistakes - everyone does it, but if you aren't sticking around to get to know your opponents then you aren't going to capitalize on the mistake.
2. as mentioned earlier, you can't use table image in short sessions (usually). People are more likely to give you respect and although it may be easier to bluff, it will be harder to get paid when you have a hand. Table image can help players make mistakes against you.
3. Luck streaks - they happen and if you don't use the psychological advantage that comes with it then you aren't winning as much as you can. When you're on the "hot-seat" you can sometimes find yourself "owning" the table.

Hit and run on the online slots . lose a right arm while your at it