ok - I may as well add the email from my Pro buddy that set me straight: sick legends at his table... 3 hours for last 3 guys to bust out. He shoved AK....
He (Mizrachi - AKA: "the Grinder") was the SB and I was the BB on that hand when I picked up AK. Since I only had about 3 big blinds it was the right play for him to raise and he didn’t even look at his cards. He ended up having QJ and I’m only about 60% or so to win the hand. That means I’m going to bust just out of the money 40% of the time. It would be the right play for me to fold if I was more than 40% likely to outlast a player by folding every hand but at that point the short stacks were surviving and it was taking forever to break the bubble. Two people at my table already survived all in hands (both were races and both times the short stack won the race). At the other 2 tables similar events occurred. The guy who eventually busted on the bubble it looked like was all in on the big blind so literally blinded out and was forced all in on the big blind. It was a pretty sick hand too because he flopped a flush but the other guy hit runner runner to get quads if I remember right (lots of people watching the table so I didn’t see it but heard the craziness). It was an exciting time to watch but for me it was so grueling.
Back to strategy – Erik Seidel was on Mizrachi’s right and Erik was doing most of the raising and stealing of blinds; he played really well I thought. Did I follow the best strategy after dinner by folding every hand? Remember the TT hand after dinner break? I folded and a decent stack to my left raised all in after it was folded to him. He may have had AK or something good and it’s possible I would’ve doubled him up or busted (can’t remember if I had him covered at the time). If I had raised and then folded then I would’ve definitely had to play more hands later and likely busted. What are the odds the bubble lasts 3 hours after dinner to go from 30 players to 27? It’s so unlikely that it takes 3 hours to bust 3 players so that was an anomoly. I asked Erik after a couple hours and he said this was really unusual; he said the final player can take an hour sometimes but never so long for the final 3 players to bust. I think my strategy was correct and just crazy it took so long in that tournament. In the future, the smart thing will be to add up everyone’s stacks at the dinner break and then make a better calculation what the odds are of when the bubble will break.
Regards,
The Jaw
P.S. Hes playing again in this WSOP event 2 weeks from now.
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02-17-2013, 01:42 PM #2
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Last edited by LaserCats; 02-17-2013 at 01:46 PM.