damn river

of course i loose this damn hand on the river. Shitty shitty shitty
Game started at: 2014/7/17 18:34:45
Game ID: 299296133 0.25/0.50 Magnesite (PRR) - 3 (Hold'em)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: AceOnTheRiver8 (45.39).
Seat 2: Yik3s (52.46).
Seat 3: Wordss (49.25).
Seat 4: GirlsNiteOut (52.25).
Seat 5: newdaddyhere (17.27).
Seat 6: charliechip (46.25).
Player newdaddyhere has small blind (0.25)
Player charliechip has big blind (0.50)
Player newdaddyhere received card: [7h]
Player newdaddyhere received card: [Ks]
Player charliechip received a card.
Player charliechip received a card.
Player AceOnTheRiver8 received a card.
Player AceOnTheRiver8 received a card.
Player Yik3s received a card.
Player Yik3s received a card.
Player Wordss received a card.
Player Wordss received a card.
Player GirlsNiteOut received a card.
Player GirlsNiteOut received a card.
Player AceOnTheRiver8 calls (0.50)
Player Yik3s folds
Player Wordss folds
Player GirlsNiteOut folds
Player newdaddyhere calls (0.25)
Player charliechip checks
*** FLOP ***: [Kc 7c 4d]
Player newdaddyhere checks
Player charliechip checks
Player AceOnTheRiver8 allin (44.89)
Player newdaddyhere allin (16.77)
Player charliechip folds
Uncalled bet (28.12) returned to AceOnTheRiver8
*** TURN ***: [Kc 7c 4d] [10c]
*** RIVER ***: [Kc 7c 4d 10c] [4s]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 33.29. Rake 1.51. JP fee 0.24
Board: [Kc 7c 4d 10c 4s]
*Player AceOnTheRiver8 shows: Two pairs. As and 4s [Ac As]. Bets: 17.27. Collects: 33.29. Wins: 16.02.
Player Yik3s does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player Wordss does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player GirlsNiteOut does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player newdaddyhere shows: Two pairs. Ks and 7s [7h Ks]. Bets: 17.27. Collects: 0. Loses: 17.27.
Player charliechip does not show cards.Bets: 0.50. Collects: 0. Loses: 0.50.
Game ended at: 2014/7/17 18:35:19

Pre-Flop
Board:


equity win tie
Hand 0: 12.287% 12.12% 00.17% { Ks7h }
Hand 1: 87.713% 87.54% 00.17% { AcAs }


Flop
Board: Kc 7c 4d


equity win tie
Hand 0: 70.909% 70.91% 00.00% { Ks7h }
Hand 1: 29.091% 29.09% 00.00% { AcAs }

Turn
Board: Kc 7c 4d Tc

equity win tie
Hand 0: 63.636% 63.64% 00.00% { Ks7h }
Hand 1: 36.364% 36.36% 00.00% { AcAs }

Lets say we have some history playing with this person. How likely is it that he has a hand that beats you on the flop when he shoves here? Let's say he had pocket 4's and open shoved 89 big blinds on the flop into a pot of 3 big blinds.

Here is you flop now

Board: Kc 7c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 16.768% 16.77% 00.00% { Ks7h }
Hand 1: 83.232% 83.23% 00.00% { 4c4h }

Do you have any hand history on this player? What range of hands did you put him on when you called. Can you put him on an over pair after this flop with no pre-flop raise? Considering no pre-flop raise and the open shove would a set not be very likely here? What % of hands is this player limping UTG with?What hands do you think he is holding on the flop that you beat and what hands would you put this player on after the flop that have you beat? Then we can come up with your real equity and if this is a profitable call to begin with.

i don't have any history with this guy. I had just sat down had maybe 3-4 hands that I had seen when this hand happen. Since there was no raise preflop and I was one of the blinds when he shoved I had a pretty good feeling that he had aa there. I mean no way he would play that ahnd like that with a set, so I wasn't worried that I was beat on the flop I knew I was good, just was hoping my hand would hold. The turn gave him more outs since any club would beat me. but ya ty for your imput on the hand

ok so let's say we are pretty sure he is not shoving a set here. What range of hands do we put him on after this flop? Does he shove 2 pair here? Does he shove a flush draw? Ac4c? Does he shove a straight flush draw? 5c6c? You say there is no way he plays a set like that. Why? What is logical reason to throw 89 bb into a pot of 3 bb with AA here? There is basically no pot here to win for him so can we really reason he was trying to get a fold or that he thought he still had the best hand was hoping someone paired a king and wanted a call? If its the latter than I see no reason he would not play a set the same way.

For the record I am not busting balls here this is the same thinking I need to apply more when I am playing. This is the best practice you can get. Picking apart a few hands. You did put it in good and I prolly always do the same here to.