Bet Sizing Tells

So in a deepstacked tournament, I just had a hand with 910c, 8 handed, blinds at 20/40, from utg +3. I have around 6k so I'm super deep stacked. I decide to make a raise to 100 to narrow the field as I would with any hand I'd open with probably. The player utg +5 decides to 3bet me to 250. This player was a good player, high winnings according to OFP, but he was also super aggressive (LAG). So, action folds back around to me and I decide to flat to see a flop.

The flop comes Q76 rainbow, with no club. I check to him and he cbets for about 2/3 the pot. Now, I decide to float here because he has been playing so aggressively. I of course can hit my 8, and that just adds to my hand, but the reason I call, has nothing to do with this, it has to do with my opponent who will be cbetting on almost any flop and since we are so deep stacked I decided he doesn't have a Q way more often than he does. Plus, if he did have a Q, I thought he'd opt more towards betting small, say like half the pot, since the board is so dry, so I might call him with a weak pocket pair, 7x, 6x, etc. So his large bet feels rather fishy. Of course, I don't want to suffer from "fancy play syndrome" and I have to be weary of making plays like that cautiously, but that felt like the best play to me at the time.

After I float, the turn is a 9, meaning I now have a pair of 9's. The pot is around 1400 chips, so the pot is still relatively small as compared to my stack size. My hand just became a lot stronger, but it isn't strong enough to bet for value because most other 9's, any pair bigger than 9, two pair, any Q, etc. beat me. So all this in mind, I check to him. He checks behind. With the 976 on board, this proves he never has a Q because he'd protect it if he did.

The river card appeared to be a scare card. It peeled an A. The pot is around 1400. I check to him. He bets out for 1025. My first thought against a LAG fish would be, okay, he hit the ace, however this player is a better player. He thinks that I have a Q and that bet size looked just like him trying to get me off of it. If he knows my range is comprised of most Qx, medium pairs, 7x, and 6x, if he actually hit the A, wouldn't he bet like 1/3 pot to get value? He would. And him betting 2/3 pot gives away he is most likely stealing. I call him with my pair of 9's and he has K10 and I scoop the pot.

Now, if he had given me credit to deduce all that and he'd have bet a 1/3 the pot, I'd have had to given him credit for rivering me and would have (begrudgingly) folded even though it is for a better price, but he didn't give me enough credit. My ego is roaring. Sucks to be him. Now gimme my chips! ;D

Very interesting hand, nice call and a great read. :)

that is the biggest post ever!! soo longgg I cant even read it i dont even know why im posting.....????

your reading was perfect, but consider that he is a good player, as you mentioned, and there is a posibility that he hit the A, and still betting 2/3 of the pot would be correct. An A on the river is a card for bluffing, and a bet of 2/3 pot is also a bluffing bet, so If he had an A and did that bet you would have called and lost the pot. You also have to consider that posibility, and see that an Ax in his range is perfectly justified by the raise preflop, and the c-bet.

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Originally Posted by matiusaa

your reading was perfect, but consider that he is a good player, as you mentioned, and there is a posibility that he hit the A, and still betting 2/3 of the pot would be correct. An A on the river is a card for bluffing, and a bet of 2/3 pot is also a bluffing bet, so If he had an A and did that bet you would have called and lost the pot. You also have to consider that posibility, and see that an Ax in his range is perfectly justified by the raise preflop, and the c-bet.

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Again, he'd have to give me credit to deduce all that, which I don't think he did.

as the hand was played on your end he can effectively eliminate Qx from your range. You are not going to check/call the flop and then check the turn again flopping top pair here. So i infact do like his line from the opponent because the way your hand was played you basically turned yoru hand face up and make it known that you had some kind of middle pair along with a draw. With the river being an Ace that is 100% a brick card for your hand and so knowing that your opponent definitely made the right move betting this river. Your river call here also is definitely questionable however it just so happened that your opponent was holding 100% air here. As played your opponent very easily could have A9/A7/A6 type of hand here and is betting that river for value once he hits his two pair on the river.

Such an obvious bluff by his sizing,even though he could be betting high for value on the river easily if the pots already pretty high and he thinks you will call him down why not bet that much

floating in 2/3 bet i hope i play with you

here is where you are flawed in your thinking.

you mentioned that the pot was relatively small for your stacksize, when A)it really isn't, your stack was T6000 the pot was T1400, or roughly 25% of your stack, that is a good portion of your stack.

B) raising to narrow the field at the 20/40 level is ridiculous and calling the 3bet is even worse.

congrats on lucksacking the hand and making a one-time good read.