Mavs +6............screams trap......need NBA opinion!!!!
I was lucky to get this one when the line came out as it dropped to +5.5 fairly fast. To me, this line is completely off. Dallas opened as -5.5 point favorites in game 1. They covered. Then the book-makers adjusted the line by 2 full points, due to the 'zig-zag' theory and the fact that MOST 'talking heads out there' predicted that Blazers would upset Dallas in this series. Well, that didn't really work out either, as Dallas covered the spread again. I feel the opening spread in game 1 of -5.5 was the accurate one. With a standard adjustment, Dallas should be +0.5 or +1 road dogs. Instead they are +6 (I guess +5.5 now). Huh? So the book-makers are inflating this line by 4.5 / 5 points due to the 'zig-zag'/revenge/'must-win-game' angle(s)? That's way too many points IMO. If you read my Playoff Preview GUIDE, I like to look at the 'relative strength' of each team in the playoffs. Dallas has the RS of +4. Portland is at +2.1. Basically, Dallas is a full 2 points better than the Blazers. So a better team on the road is catching 5.5/6 full points? That screams 'value' to me. Bottom line is that Portland struggles in stopping a jump-shooting team like the Mavs. There's a reason they're ranked #22 in EFG% defense. Will it get easier for Dallas to make jump-shots on the road? Of course not, but I have 3 'buckets' in my favor already. Expect a tight contest, and I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas wins a close one in the end. (By the way, if this is a so-called 'trap-line', and there are factors that I'm not aware off, feel free to call me a 'sucker' if this wager losses)
Good luck!.............thought i would pass this write up along
hope this helps someones' book
regards,
chopped
