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  1. #1
    PokerOwned Master
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    Think you're imagining bad beats....

    see for yourself with evidence. Found this article about calculating the standard deviation for ev all-in preflop and postflop.

    Online Poker Watchdog - Downloads - Test your own hand histories!

    If you used Poker Tracker they have 4 reports that you can download: 2 reports for cash - all-in ev preflop and all-in ev postflop as well as same 2 reports for tournaments.

    Make sure to watch the videos as the reports themselves don't make much sense. You need to export the reports and calculate the deviation in excel.

    I ran the test against the hands I have and found that the deviation for ALL records (this includes hand which were observed and I was not a part of) was within the acceptable parameters (i.e. within 2 standard deviations).

    Then I filtered only hands that I was involved and found that the standard deviation was 4x the ev, which is outside the norm. Guess I am not too crazy after all. I just hope this variance swings the other way and I start winning more than I should.

    Anyhow, thought I would share with the group so you can see just how bad you're running.

    Good luck at the tables!
    Last edited by joefine; 02-14-2012 at 06:33 PM.

  2. #2
    PokerOwned God
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    how many hands were in your sample that you tested?

  3. #3
    Elite PokerOwned Member bishking's Avatar
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    What? Can you explain it more simple like dumb it down a little. Confuse by what you're trying to break down.

  4. #4
    PokerOwned God abwil2's Avatar
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    im guessing his sample size isnt too big but its still frustrating LOL id like to know more of your findings even with a small sample size
    Failing to Prepare is Preparing to fail : John Wooden

  5. #5
    PokerOwned Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by bmeelneg View Post
    how many hands were in your sample that you tested?
    Sorry I should have added this information to start with. You guys are right the sample size is not huge especially for the hands that I was involved with. I only ran the 2 reports for tournements since I don't play a lot of cash.

    Tournament all-in pre-flop total hands: 3000 hands
    Tournament all-in pre-flop my hands: 400 hands
    Tournament all-in flop total hands: 3100 hands
    Tournament all-in flop my hands: 500 hands

    The standard deviation for all-in pre-flop for all hands is 25, while the actual deviation is 17. The std dev for all-in pre-flop my hands is 9, while the actual deviation is 33.

    The standard deviation for all-in flop for all hands 25, while actual deviation is 27. The std dev for all-in fop my hands is 10, while actual deviation is is 47.

    I know the sample size is small but still, I'm taking a killing and losing much more often than I should.
    Last edited by joefine; 02-15-2012 at 07:31 PM.

  6. #6
    PokerOwned Master
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    sound very interesting tys for sharing it I m going to check it out

  7. #7
    PokerOwned God
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    Some statistical stuff needs to be taken with a grain of salt, so to speak.

    I won't get into the small sample size since you already have touched on that. The allin preflop numbers mean next to nothing to some degree without some context. What are you getting allin with, are you calling or pushing, are you loose or tight?

    If someone with a Durrr style looses more allins then he wins, that is normal (his style compensates by picking up chips elsewhere). If someone as tight as say Hellmuth looses more allins then he wins then you might have a case for something going on.

  8. #8
    -(^_^)- ProBlackbird's Avatar
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    I don't need a Poker tracker, doesn't seem to be useful at all.
    PokerStars: ProBlackbird | Betsson: ProBlackbird | Party Poker: UnknownFlush

  9. #9
    Elite PokerOwned Member tp3rd's Avatar
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    Funny thing is ,Merge defenders always say that you have no evidence or that you see more hands in a shorter period of time and thats why you think your'e getting bad beat. Then you give them these stats and they come up with more excuses. Bottom line is that Merge's casino is rigged,which to me amounts to larceny,and 2 ndly their poker plays out incredibly outside the norm of what acceptable deviation is. Hopefully Black Friday part 2 and new US based and regulated poker sites will do away with all this.

  10. #10
    PokerOwned God
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    Quote Originally Posted by tp3rd View Post
    Funny thing is ,Merge defenders always say that you have no evidence or that you see more hands in a shorter period of time and thats why you think your'e getting bad beat. Then you give them these stats and they come up with more excuses. Bottom line is that Merge's casino is rigged,which to me amounts to larceny,and 2 ndly their poker plays out incredibly outside the norm of what acceptable deviation is. Hopefully Black Friday part 2 and new US based and regulated poker sites will do away with all this.
    Please give us your expert analysis on his data. Also when I'm playing in a PO freeroll I'd like to know which player its rigged for so I can avoid them.

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